Wynands; One or more of the Big Three will drop out of the Console Market

Here’s what someone working for them said:

In my opinion, the market is now unsustainable for 3 dedicated game consoles, much less the myriad of new players jumping in. Indeed, it might not be sustainable for any dedicated consoles

The environment is hostile enough to the traditional console that I think one or more of the big 3 will drop out completely, but I’m expecting all 3 to make losses without radical change to their business models (hence my calls for revamping of their digital offerings)

It seems worryingly possible, and it does make me fear for all of them.

Personally, I’m predicting it’s going to be Sony. Or that they’ll be the first of the big three to leave video games given how much of a bad state the market is in and how much money they’re losing nowadays.

But I also think it might be a bit of a hollow victory for both Nintendo and Microsoft. Sure Sony would be gone within a generation or two, but their own situations aren’t looking too bright either. Microsoft? Apparently they’re falling behind in many ways and haven’t really caught up with the times, with the likes of Microsoft Windows and Office being threatened by cloud computing and tablets and other types of systems. So for as well as the Xbox is doing in the US video game market and all that, I suspect it could be for naught if their main revenue streams start failing. And while Nintendo have enough money to keep going for quite a while, I have to say I sometimes worry what will happen in generation 9 or 10 if the Wii U or its successors don’t pick up steam like the Wii did.

There’s also a worry about what would happen if ANY of them dropped out the console market. Let’s say Sony does. What now? Nintendo basically have a monopoly over the Japanese market and Microsoft one over the US market. If Nintendo drops out, then the Japanese market could be real trouble and its unlikely tech will change in the next ten years (other than increasing in power and cost). And if Microsoft drops out, then Nintendo has no real incentive to try much in regards to the US.

Whatever happens, if one of the big three console companies drops out, we all pretty much lose. And while Sony is certainly the most likely to run into problems, it’s still best to hope they don’t.

What do you think? Will one of the big three drop out this generation? And if so, who would it be?